Sunday, October 21, 2007

selling

I need to decide how much stock to sell tomorrow, when the trading window opens.

This is usually an annoying decision. The Chinese immigrant in me is willing to take the bus across SF instead of a cab, in order to save $10. This decision will impact slightly more than $10, which makes me feel compelled to do a massive amount of research -- read all the quarterly reports, compute projections, etc.

Luckily some of my friends have a good attitude on it all.

Googler #1: [looking at stock price of $600] Maybe selling at $200 was a mistake.

Googler #2: Not buying MSFT for $0.11 in 1986 is a much worse mistake. Also, you should have named the winning lottery numbers in last week's Powerball. Hindsight is 20/20, the market is random, and we're all lucky fuckers.

Well said.

29 comments:

Mike Abundo said...

Hold on to it. When Google rules the world, you can trade it in for small countries.

alang said...

U r a rich chinese woman

Tudor said...

You mean ex-googler #1, which puts this in a slightly different context.

John K. Lin said...

Well, it's definitely good to diversify your holdings.

If GOOG survived Friday on such a bad selling day (on the 20th anniversary of Black Monday!), I don't think there is so much downside risk. What is the upside? GOOG just surpassed Cisco in market cap. If GOOG doubles, can you "retire"? (i.e. be financially secure so you never, ever have to worry about money again)

Funny, I think we're all victims of analysis paralysis on small decisions, and not on the big ones...

What is your financial goal? What do you want to do with your money if you sell or sell a certain amount? How much longer do you want to stay at Google and when do your options expire?

And when you get a chance, let me know when next week's Powerball #'s are :-)

Anonymous said...

Selling at $200 is brilliant if Googler #1 turned around and invested it all in Apple.

Apple's run up is just amazing.

Jake said...

Every hot stock will have its "wake up call" and Google is no different.

Dell was the darling that could never do wrong. Heck look at Ebay - its as close to a monopoly as you can get, its still nowhere near its dot.com peak. Google is not a monopoly in its business but a lot of people would like to think that Google has a monopoly in talent.

It doesn't hurt to diversify. You sit down and say, if you sold and Google doubled how would you feel. If you didn't sell and Google halved how would you feel? Based on the two feelings you decide how much to sell until those two emotions balance out. :)

Cheers.

Bill Wang said...

are you Chinese?

you are very pretty, i like you.

Anonymous said...

Bill, Niniane hates Asian men.

Anonymous said...

Contratry to what Googler #2 says, the market is not random.

There is a rhyme and reason for everything.

Anonymous said...

Yeah, the agonising and emotional ritual of parting with one's well-beloved options. :-) Congrats. Don't you find it wierd that such a important subject only solicit 10- comments? Why does one's dating preferences can fetch 100+ comments?!? What's wrong with this picture?

Anonymous said...

Yeah, the agonising and emotional ritual of parting with one's well-beloved options. :-) Congrats. Don't you find it wierd that such a important subject only solicit 10- comments? Why does one's dating preferences can fetch 100+ comments?!? What's wrong with this picture?

Anonymous said...

man, that guy who sold at $200 is one ghetto motherfucker.

Anonymous said...

Ah...decisions, decisions.
Shall I make my millions now or millions later. Such a rough life you live.

Anonymous said...

Seriously. You got hired in 2003? Roughly a year before IPO. You're rolling in the dough you lucky bitch. You DID win the lottery.

mtbouchard said...

I remember an old quote from someone like JP Morgan...his friend said he was so worried about his stock investments that he couldn't sleep at night. Morgan's advice was to sell down until he could sleep. So...can you sleep at night assuming all your stock could go to Zero tomorrow? (if you don't believe that, then you should get an advisor) :)

The market does tend to be a little bit like Poker because you can't control every aspect - implying chance is involved. So taking some money off the table can be a good move. People tend to Regret losing money more than not winning it - even if the values involved are the same.

Good luck,
matt

metal said...

See, your immigrant experience may vary from mine, but I remember that we were broke enough that when when I dropped a glass as a child and it shattered my mom was more pissed about the cost of the glass than about cleaning up the glass shards.


That being said, sure you could screw up with your stocks. But you know what? you can afford to screw up. I dont imagine your quality of life would suffer much if you did lose out on the market.

Anonymous said...

it must be a little odd to be you, although perhaps not so much because you hang out with people in similar extraordinary circumstances. Don't get me wrong, I think you are brilliant (and very funny ;) and you clearly deserve a great job doing brilliant things, but $-wise you lucked out with the timing and google.

I like how googlers seem so down to earth in spite of everything. Well, except for the ridiculously elaborate parties. Who does that?? =)

Anonymous said...

Thou foolish one, this night is thy soul required of thee; and the things which thou hast prepared, whose shall they be?

Gavin said...

An interesting article about Daniel Handler's (Lemony Snicket) take on the taboo of talking about one's wealth.

http://www.sfgate.com/cgi-bin/article.cgi?f=/g/a/2007/10/22/moneytales.DTL

Anonymous said...

Do what your heart tells you to do. Don't fret about consequences because all the money in the world cannot assure you of family, peace and serenity. All that is pretty much internal.

From that Idaho oldster who likes your interpretation of Hotel California.

Know it all hater said...

Anonymous said...
Contratry to what Googler #2 says, the market is not random.

There is a rhyme and reason for everything.


Of course there is rhyme and reason for everything in the market...But you will never know it until after the fact. And you are not in control.. Other people & events are.

Anonymous said...

Speak for yourself. I am in control. And when I'm not, I take control. Seriously! Why, just the other day I..*687qwe
.*&
^&%86392..
asdf&*^7fasdf
-09fasd)0934jasdf
lkajsdf%MM
..!..+++
(--*79m&

>NO CARRIER<

Niniane said...

"NO CARRIER" jokes are so 1992!

Anonymous said...

Well, I suppose I date myself. On the other hand, I like dating myself--I think we have a lot in common. :)

killadm said...

传说中的富婆就是这样的吧。。。

Anonymous said...

老骥伏枥志在千里...

Anonymous said...

My God,

Sell...sell...sell. You googlers think you work for Berkshire Hathaway or something. Man, I thought the stock was overpriced at its IPO...let alone 600 bucks.

Don't worry, it sounds like you'll get more option grants and restricted stock so you can still participate in the upside going forward (if that even happens).

Take a little something off the table...you work for the company and, presumably, have a large portion of your net worth tied up in GOOG stock.

Get out while you can...you'll thank me later.

Believe me.

ishkabubba said...

who would've guessed a week later goog would be trading at $700. even after factoring in the declining dollar goog still has a decent roi. if the fed cuts interest rates today goog will probably even go higher.

xxx1xxx said...

与你相反的我正期待,买入 Google 的股票,价格正在下跌,买入的时机,好像不在重要。

不敢期待跌倒很低的价位。但对我来说了解Google 的信息却极其困难,我在中国,新疆。

我阅读英语也极其困难,但愿可以如愿。


【迫做大量的研究-读所有的季度报告,预测计算等。】我想你该分享一下。

我个人感觉 Google 300---400 的 长期的投资 可以买入 我 也期待