One day in 2004, prior to the launch of Google Desktop, I was discussing a particular product feature with fellow Googler "Daffodil".
Daffodil: This feature is retarded! It actually makes people stupider. Every time I use it, I become a stupider person.
Millions of people now use that feature.
(To be fair, it went through an evolution and became more useful prior to launch.)
Also around that time, Daffodil and I discussed SMS text messaging. It was still a young technology, promoted via commercials on television.
Daffodil: Text messaging is the stupidest technology I've ever seen! Why on earth would you send a message instead of calling? Every single commercial shows some preposterous situation, like kids who are grounded, or coworkers badmouthing their boss at a meeting.
Today SMS is used by hundreds of millions of people worldwide, as we all know. In many countries, it has wider adoption than internet.
Daffodil is now an avid user of text messaging.
...
Seeing as how these technology predictions worked out so well for Daffodil, I decided I would also take a turn tonight.
My topic is
justin.tv.
I think the idea behind justin.tv is cute. It has a pleasant community aspect of discussing real-time events. When I watched it once for twenty minutes, I was amused by Justin navigating to a nightclub.
Justin himself seems like a nice fellow as well. I met him briefly this summer, though the meeting was cut short when he answered my question of "How many people are watching this right now?" His reply was 100x what I expected, because I was expecting three or at most five people. I blanched and bolted across the room.
In spite of its cuteness, I am perplexed that justin.tv recently received funding. Is product placement a business model that will actually scale, as the company allows any user to be a lifecaster? How will short-attention-span America sift through the crap and get to actual interesting content?
I should state that I truly commend them on shooting for the stars. It's certainly better than making a ripoff of an existing service. I just don't see how it will leap from "cute" to "mainstream".
At dinner tonight:
Me: "You know justin.tv?"
Colleague: "Yeah, I thought it was a fad. Is it still going on?"
Me: "They just raised a series of funding."
Colleague: "Wait a minute. That's like funding
LOLcats."